Two players can share a projection and carry very different risk.

Dispersion forecasts every NFL player's fantasy points, and every game's winning margin, as a range of outcomes rather than a single number — then grades those ranges in public against what actually happened. Two players projected for the same 14 points can carry ranges twice as wide as each other. The midpoint is what everyone else already gives you; the width is what this site is for.

This snapshot publishes 000 player ranges for week 00, 0.0 to 00.0 points wide. Each is built so 0 results in 10 land inside it — across 0,000 graded weeks of published forecasts, 00% did.

Built for fantasy managers and researchers who want the uncertainty, not a pick. A research preview, not betting advice: against the bookmakers' closing line this model ties on accuracy and loses money on the spread.